With Israel's population currently at 7.3 million, and over 75% of them Jews, the demographic trends continue to be pro-Jewish.

Demographer and diplomat Yoram Ettinger notes that pessimistic predictions about Jewish growth in Israel "systematically crash upon the cliffs of reality."  His latest target is the "secret memorandum" presented by Israel's first statistician, the late Prof. Roberto Baki, to David Ben-Gurion in 1944. 

Baki told Ben-Gurion that Jews could comprise, at best, 16% of the total population in Israel by 2001 - but possibly as low as 8.8%.  If Jewish Aliyah [immigration] to Israel was taken into account, Baki predicted, Jews would make up between 21% and 34% of the total population.

In fact, however, at the end of December 2007, Jews comprised 75.6% of the total population, and Arabs were 20%. When taking Judea, Samaria and Gaza into account, the Jews still have a 60% majority.  

Baki Ignored Aliyah
Baki, the founder of Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), was the "inspiration for Israel's statistical and demographical institutions," Ettinger writes. However, Ettinger says, Baki simply did not take into account the systematic and massive Jewish Aliyah [immigration] to Israel over the decades.

Only 18,000 Jews made Aliyah in 2007 and 19,000 in 2006, compared with 21,000 in 2005.  However, Ettinger writes, "The current drop is simply a natural phase of the cyclical nature of Aliyah.  The fall and winter herald the spring. This was the case in the 70's and 90's as well. An unprecedented amount of Jewish/Zionist education in the former Soviet Union and in the United States herald the spring of Aliyah."

On the other hand, he notes, "Arab emigration, mostly young Arabs of child-bearing age, has characterized Judea, Samaria and Gaza since 1950."

Baki also predicted, quite mistakenly, that the Arab birth rate would continue to be very high, stabilizing at 6-7 children per woman. In fact, however, it is now 4 in Judea and Samaria, and closer to 3 inside Israel.  The Jewish birthrate, on the other hand, continues to crawl upward, up from 2.6 to 2.8 over the past 20 years. 

Jewish Births - Up
The annual number of Jewish births has increased by 40% in the past 12 years, from 80,400 to 112,500, whereas the number of Arab births in Israel has remained stable at 39,000.

Ettinger states that many Israeli demographers, such as those of the CBS, Prof. Professor Sergio Della Pergola of Hebrew University, and Prof. Arnon Sofer of Haifa University, "consistenly ignore the principle of demographic cycles... Their predictions do not take into account the great influence on Arab demographics of emigration, urbanization, expanded education, family planning, fewer teenage pregnancies, later marriage, and divorces."

Ettinger: Jews are Non-Normative
Ettinger accuses them of "basing their predictions on linear extrapolations, which are doomed to failure, especially in the long-term.  They also tend to deal with Jewish demographics in normative Western terms - corresponding income and education with child-bearing - when in fact this is generally not relevant to the Jewish nation, which is non-normative."

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice arrived in Israel Sunday ready to rebuke Israel for deciding to approve construction of 1,300 housing units in the capital city.

During her flight to the Middle East late Saturday, Rice told reporters, "We've said before that this is a time to try and build confidence, and this [decision to build homes for Jews in Jerusalem] is simply not helpful to building confidence. And so we'll have a further discussion of it, but I intend to have a discussion of Roadmap obligations generally, and this is obviously a Roadmap obligation that's not being met."

Rice maintained that the discrepancy between the views of Israel and the Palestinian Authority over what constitutes a violation of the Roadmap obligations only underscores the need to come to an agreement on final borders as soon as possible.

The status of neighborhoods in the eastern sections of Jerusalem, and for that matter the greater Jerusalem area – which were annexed to Israel 28 years ago – is one of the numerous sore points still proving insurmountable in final status negotiations between the two sides.

"I think it's a problem," Rice said, "that I'm going to address with the Israelis. And it's also, as the President said today, it gives us every reason that we really ought to be determining the boundaries of the state, because what's in Israel will be in Israel at that point, and what's in Palestine will be in Palestine. And that's the best way to resolve this - but you know, I repeat, we've talked a great deal about the importance of Roadmap obligations, and this one isn't being met."

As for whether some of the issues might be resolved and others ultimately left for later – this was a notion Rice squelched instantly:

"Part of the difficulty in negotiations like this is that the issues are intertwined. You know, borders and security, issues concerning Jerusalem, and issues concerning borders, and issues concerning refugees... They're all very intertwined. I believe the parties have adopted the right strategy here, which is that they work on all of them, recognizing that some may move more quickly than others, but also recognizing that nothing can be agreed till everything is agreed. And it's just very difficult to imagine a circumstance under which you could separate somehow the border issue from these other important issues… I've encouraged the parties not to hesitate to push ahead if something is moving, but the idea that you could have a separate agreement, I think that just doesn't make sense."

This is Rice's 18th visit to Israel.

Ofer Dekel, the government's emissary dealing with IDF prisoners of war, left Sunday on a quiet mission that may be aimed at closing a deal to free IDF reservists Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev, according to a report by Ynet. No specific details have been released about his mission or his destination, however.

Ehud's father Shlomo confirmed that Dekel was abroad, and said he believed that Kuntar should be "swapped" for the release of Israeli captives.

Ehud and Eldad, who were kidnapped by Hizbullah terrorists at the outset of the 2006 Second Lebanon War, have been neither seen nor heard from since 2006. Representatives from the International Red Cross have been barred from visiting them, in direct violation of the Geneva Convention, since the day they were kidnapped.

It is believed the prisoner swap deal will include Lebanese Druze terrorist Samir Kuntar, who is serving four life sentences in an Israeli prison for a vicious attack he led on Nahariyah in 1979.

The brutality of the attack, which left four Israelis dead, including two toddlers, inspired the judge to hand down one of the longest prison sentences ever decreed in the Jewish State. Kuntar remains in Hadarim Prison 29.

Until this point, Israel has refused to discuss his release unless there was information about the missing Israeli Air Force navigator Ron Arad.

What About Ron Arad?
Kuntar was originally being saved as a bargaining chip for the freedom of the captured airman, whose aircraft was shot down over Lebanon in 1986. Three letters in Arad's handwriting and two photos of the missing airman were received by his family in 1987, proving he was alive.

But by 1988 talks faded and it is believed the Amal terrorists who captured him, led by Nabih Berri - today the Speaker of Lebanon's Parliament and head of the Shi'ite Amal party - handed Ron Arad over to a Hizbullah terrorist unit, who then turned him over to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.

This information came from a Hizbullah terrorist, Mustafa Dirani, captured by Israel in 1994. Dirani said he received $300,000 for handing Ron Arad over to the Iranians. He and another Hizbullah terrorist captured by Israel, Abdul Karim Obeid, were both released in a prisoner swap deal to secure the freedom of Israeli businessman Elchanan Tenenbaum. 

No further information on Ron Arad was ever discovered after the two Hizbullah terrorists were freed.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert reportedly plans to meet with the Arad family later this week to inform them that Kuntar might be released in a prisoner swap deal to free Goldwasser and Regev.

Welcome Back Carter…
Former US President Jimmy Carter is expected to return to the region this summer to meet with Hizbullah officials in Lebanon.

The visit comes on the heels of his controversial trip to Damascus earlier this year to meet with Hamas politburo chief Khaled Mashaal. The Democratic former president also traveled to Egypt, where he met with students at the American University in Cairo, and visited with Palestinian Authority Chairman and Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah.

Carter, who has been a longstanding critic of Israel, particularly vis-a-vis its counterterrorism policies, also broke with US policy by laying a wreath at the grave of the late master terrorist and Fatah leader, Yasser Arafat, during his April 2008 visit to the region.

In response to dozens of letters of complaint, the manager of Jerusalem's Inbal Hotel says he feels he had no choice, but he's sorry for flying the flag of the Palestinian Liberation Organization-Palestinian Authority last month.

The flag was flown for two days at the end of May, when the hotel hosted the International Security Forum, chaired by Public Security Minister Avi Dichter of Kadima.  Government representatives from various countries, as well as from the Palestinian Authority, took part, and flags of each participating country - or "political entity," in the case of the PA - waved proudly in the breeze of the hotel. 

News of the enemy flag adorning the popular Jerusalem hotel spread quickly after Arutz-7 blogger Yisrael Medad published a letter by Yonatan Adler informing of the Inbal-PLO flag display.  Various grassroots organizations quickly took up the gauntlet, and letters by citizens expressing extreme concern began arriving at the Inbal Hotel. 

By last week, Inbal's General Manager Rodney Sanders had answered at least a few of them.  His first letters expressed regret that the letter-writers were offended, but by the end of last week, at least one writer received a straight-out apology. 

Sanders wrote, "I, too, felt uncomfortable when asked, even by the Israeli government, to fly the colors of the Palestinian Authority at the hotel... We were instructed by the Israel Ministry of Public Security and the organizing committee to fly the flags of all those participating in the conference, including that of the Palestinian Authority."

Sanders explained that Minister Dichter "chose the Inbal Jerusalem Hotel to be the venue for the International Security Forum, a conference on 'Challenges to Homeland Security,' of which MK Avi Dicter was the chairman.  US Secretary of Homeland Security Michael Chertkoff and a dozen other internal security ministers from Europe and beyond were invited and Minister Dicter also invited the Palestinian Minister of Interior."

"While not meaning to add to anybody's distress," Sanders continued, "I think it important for me to mention that other prominent hotels are often asked by the Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs to host Israel-Palestinian negotiating sessions. Sometimes this also involves flags."

Apology
"I would like to apologize for placing the flag on the building," Sanders then wrote, adding, "I have now since learnt how sensitive this issue is to the feelings of our nation and our people, but I believe I had no choice but to follow the request of the Ministry."

Response
Susie Dym, spokesperson of the Cities of Israel grassroots organization, commented afterwards, "Our activists feel that the people of the Inbal Hotel must be proud Israelis with a strong backbone.  If the manager of the hotel had acted so, Minister Dichter of Kadima would have learned how to straighten the national back, and the peace negotiations would have gained greatly from this. We will not respect a hotel that does not know how to respect itself and its country."

Some activists say the campaign should be pursued by faxing protests to Minister Dichter, at 02 (9722, from outside Israel) 542-8039.

"We must prevent the disaster of elections that the Labor party chairman is bringing upon us," Vice Prime Minister Chaim Ramon (Kadima) said this weekend. "We must not bring Bibi [Netanyahu] to power, there is no reason to put Bibi in charge," Ramon added. He was speaking on Channel 2's "Meet the Press," in an interview taped Friday and aired Saturday.

Ramon said he is currently doing all he can to make sure that Ehud Olmert remains as head of the government, and barring that, to have him replaced by "whomever Kadima selects to head it." Despite this, he estimated that elections would take place within the next year.

Ramon contended that Barak had already brought the Likud back into power before, when he resigned from his post as Prime Minister in 2000, and that he was about to do the same thing again now, by calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Olmert. In the interview, he asked repeatedly to give Olmert a chance to present his version of the relationship with businessman Morris (Moshe) Talansky and to let his lawyers cross-examine Talansky before passing judgment on him.

Barak has 'Chutzpah'
Ramon also attacked Barak for his statement that the Kadima primaries were delaying implementation of a "calm" in Gaza.  Ramon called this statement "chutzpah" because Barak himself was the one who brought about the need for holding primaries.

Ramon also blasted Barak for wanting the calm: "The Prime Minister is holding discussions and arguments on the subject, and the person who is not consenting and agreeing to decide upon a military operation is the Defense Minister. He is the one who is acting resolutely and forcefully to achieve a 'calm' and recognize Hamas," Ramon said, adding that "a 'calm' is a euphemism for de facto recognition of a Hamas state, surrendering to a terror state."
"A 'calm' is a euphemism for surrendering to a terror state."

Ramon also used the term "Hamastan" – coined by opponents of the Disengagement to describe the dangerous consequences it would have – in referring to Gaza.

Prosecution 'Caught Red-Handed'
Ramon was also asked about the recommendation made to the government last week by Justice Minister Daniel Friedmann, that a committee of inquiry be appointed in the matter of the wiretaps made during the investigation of Ramon's sexual misconduct in 2006. Interviewers Dana Weiss and Ben Kaspit asked him why there was a need for the committee, and he explained that the prosecution had been "caught red-handed" trying to hide evidence acquired through the wiretaps from his defense attorneys. 
The committee was established because of suspicions that during the investigation against Ramon, "directions were being sent from the Supreme Court to Brig.-Gen. Miri Golan."

The committee is to have authority to name suspects and recommend action against them.

The committee is to be headed by retired judge Dr. Dan Bein, and its two other members are to be Prof. Aharon Anker and Attorney Dan Avi-Yitzchak. The Knesset's Constitution, Law and Justice Committee recommended that such a committee be created. So did another committee of inquiry on the wiretap matter, which was headed by retired judge Vardimus Zeiler but lacked authority to recommend action against suspects.

Supreme Court Meddling?
According to Channel 2's political analyst Amnon Abramovich, the committee of inquiry was established because of suspicions that during the investigation against Ramon, "directions were being sent from Jerusalem to Bat Yam" – that is, from the Supreme Court to Brig.-Gen. Miri Golan, who headed the police's National Unit for Fraud Investigations at the time.

Golan, he noted, violated the Sabbath despite being a religious woman in order to meet the key witness against Ramon in a coffee shop. She also intimidated the witness into cooperating, Abramovich said. In order to be more effective than the previous panels which inquired into the matter, the committee would have to interrogate her and make her explain why she acted this way, he said.

Israel's Supervisor of Banks has revealed a new schedule of bank fees designed to simplify - if not cheapen - the process of paying them.
 
As of July 1, most bank customers will have to deal with only two monthly fees, instead of eleven.  Normal account transactions carried out by a teller will cost between 5.5 and 7 shekels, while internet or phone transactions will range from 1.35 to 2.9 shekels.

Each bank has published its own rates, with Bank Leumi and Bank HaPoalim featuring the cheapest ones. The banks say they may lower the rates in accordance with market trends.

Roni Hizkiyahu, Bank of Israel's Supervisor of Banks, announced the new rates at a press conference Sunday morning.  "The new schedule is a revolution and a historic stage for bank consumers," he said. "This is the first time that there is such a law that gives tools to consumers in their struggle for better conditions vis-a-vis the banks."

Bank of Israel retains the authority to control the fee rates, "and we intend to use this if the competition doesn't work," Hizkiyahu said.

Average monthly payments for bank services are expected to drop slightly, from an average of 24.5 shekels to 24. Monthly credit card fees will also become simpler, being unified into one single fee ranging from 8 to 14 shekels.
 
Israeli bank consumers are not alone in their problems with the financial institutions that control their money supply.  The United States' Government Accountability Office recently reported that consumers "may find it difficult to obtain information about checking and savings account fees," after its own staff investigators, shopping undercover at banks, couldn't get fee and other account details at more than a third of the bank branches they visited.  In Britain, "unfair bank charges have been imposed on millions of people," and "customers who have been charged up to ?40 for unauthorised overdrafts, bounced cheques, or failed direct debits are fighting back against bank charges."

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert opted for talking with Hamas instead of ordering a full-scale counterterrorist offensive in Gaza because of fear of heavy casualties and a long-term operation, TIME magazine reported Sunday. Top IDF officials also reportedly told the Prime Minister that a major offensive would not put a total stop to rocket attacks on Israel.

While talks on a cooling-off period of terrorist attacks and IDF retaliation continue, both sides are preparing for war.

Hamas leaders told TIME its terrorists, to whom the magazine referred as "militants," have "surprises" in store for Israeli soldiers, including longer-range rockets and surface-to-air missiles that can shoot down helicopters. Many of Hamas's forces have been training in Iran and Syria.

Prime Minister Olmert's option for negotiating through Egyptian mediators follows a policy he stated two years ago, when he stated, "We are tired of winning; we are tired of defeating our enemies." He made the comment to the Israel Policy Forum when he was Vice Prime Minister in the Sharon government.
We are tired of winning; we are tired of defeating our enemies

Government aides have issued contradictory behind-the-scenes comments on the status of kidnapped IDF soldier Gilad Shalit in the current negotiations with Hamas. Prime Minister Olmert said at the opening of the weekly Cabinet meeting Sunday morning, "Releasing Gilad Shalit is an inseparable part of any agreement with Hamas for 'calm.'"

However, several sources have indicated that freeing the soldier would be "stage two" of an agreement following a halt to terrorist attacks and IDF retaliation. His release would be part of a deal in which the Prime Minister would agree to free several hundred Arab terrorists.

Several government ministers, most notably former IDF Chief of Staff and Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz, have urged a large counterterrorist offensive.

The current government debate on invading Gaza vs. negotiating with Hamas is precisely the situation that former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said would be prevented by the expulsion of Jews and the destruction of their communities in Gush Katif three years ago under the Disengagement Plan.

"The purpose of the Disengagement Plan is to reduce terror as much as possible, and grant Israeli citizens the maximum level of security," Sharon told the Herzliya Conference in December 2003. "These steps will increase security for the residents of Israel and relieve the pressure on the IDF and security forces in fulfilling the difficult tasks they are faced with."

A7 Radio's  "Torah Tidbits Audio" with Phil Chernofsky

A discussion of the post Shavuot / pre-3 Weeks period, Parshat B'haalotcha, and some music from Shalhevet.

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